Tonight - October 21	Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
	Thursday - October 22	A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 3pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 3pm and 5pm, then isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny. High near 73, with temperatures falling to around 70 in the afternoon. South southwest wind 5 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
	Thursday Night - October 22	Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
	Friday - October 23	Sunny, with a high near 68. South southeast wind 2 to 9 mph.
	Friday Night - October 23	Mostly clear, with a low around 56. North northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
	Saturday - October 24	Sunny, with a high near 71.
	Saturday Night - October 24	Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
	Sunday - October 25	Sunny, with a high near 72.
	Sunday Night - October 25	Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
	Monday - October 26	Sunny, with a high near 74.
	Monday Night - October 26	Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
	Tuesday - October 27	Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
	Tuesday Night - October 27	Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.
	Wednesday - October 28	Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

000
FXUS65 KVEF 220510
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1010 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Tornado Watch and Flash Flood Watch in effect for Mohave County, 
  AZ today. Strong to severe storms expected for NW Arizona and also 
  the lower Great Basin in Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye Counties. 
  Damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy rain are 
  all threats.

* Additional rounds of rain and storms expected across much of the 
  region tonight and Thursday with mainly a heavy rain, flash flood, 
  and lightning threat. 
  
* Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend 
  and early next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Tuesday.

.TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR NW ARIZONA, FAR EAST NEVADA, AND 
ALSO THE LOWER GREAT BASIN.

Active weather is already ongoing this morning across the region 
with numerous showers and thunderstorms in NW Arizona and along the 
NV/UT border. Important note for the day, Las Vegas the Colorado 
River Valley and portions of the Mohave Desert in San Bernardino 
County will likely NOT be impacted by today's severe weather threat, 
but will update the forecast if needed. Greatest area of concern for 
severe weather will be over Northern and Eastern portions of Mohave 
County AZ, then a secondary area to watch over Inyo, Esmeralda, and 
Nye counties. Today's set up includes a strong upper low off the 
coast of California while a 90-100kt jet streak in AZ places the 
region in an area of strong upper level diffluence and enhanced lift 
under the left exit region. Effective bulk shear of 45-60 kt and 
increasing instability will be more than sufficient for discrete 
cells and supercell development later this afternoon capable of 
producing large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes. 
Long hodographs indicate the potential for splitting supercells and 
left movers today which could produce hail up to 2" in diameter. 
Anonymously low LCLs across Mohave County in addition to 200-300 
m2/s2 effective SR helicity will aid in the localized tornado threat 
in the strongest storms. Supercell composite above 4 and SigTor 
parameter above 1 confirm the primed atmosphere for a severe weather 
event not typically seen in this part of the country. Further west 
over the higher terrain of Inyo County and far western Nevada, 
parameters are similar however the tornado threat is significantly 
lower there. Organized thunderstorms will be possible further west 
with damaging winds from downbursts, hail, heavy rain, and lightning 
as threats. PWATs between 1-1.35" should allow for fairly efficient 
and heavy rainfall under any storm, but due to the fast storm motion 
today, flash flooding will be confined to areas where storms train 
over the same area for a period of time. Greatest threat for Flash 
Flooding will be in Mohave County where more widespread convection 
is already ongoing and training storms are more likely.


Timing: Ongoing storms this morning in Mohave County, but the 
greatest threat for severe weather will be Noon to 7 PM. Expecting 
storms to begin developing further west toward Inyo County after 
12pm-1pm. Potential is there for showers and storms to continue into 
the late evening and nighttime hours with a lessening severe weather 
after sunset.


.Thursday through Early Next Week.

The primary vort max of the low/trough swings through on Thursday, 
bringing the best chance of widespread precipitation to our 
region. PoPs on Thursday are 50% or more in most locations, though
the southern Mojave Desert remains the greatest area of "bust" 
potential with PoPs 10-40%. Precipitation chances largely exit the
CWA Thursday night once the shortwave trough axis clears us, but 
a secondary shortwave diving south will keep the larger trough 
overhead on Friday. This allows shower chances (20-40%) to linger,
primarily in the southern Great Basin. The trough finally pushes 
east on Saturday, although guidance has trended slower with this. 
The weekend should be much drier, but if the trough continues to 
slow, low precipitation chances may linger in our eastern areas on
Saturday. 

The hydro/convective concerns are going to be the primary focus
with this system, but there are other aspects worth mentioning 
as well. Snow levels bottom out around 8kft, but most of the 
precip will fall while they are 9kft+, thus limiting any winter 
impacts to the higher elevations of the Sierra. Gusty winds will 
be present as well with this storm, with widespread southerly 
gusts of 20-40 mph today and Thursday. Friday into Saturday, we 
see a shift to gusty north winds as the system pulls away. 
Temperatures will be near normal today, dropping to below-normal 
values tomorrow through Saturday. Dry and seasonable conditions 
expected Sunday through Tuesday as we see a lull in the storm 
track.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast 
Package...Light winds are expected overnight. Increasing south to 
southwest winds are expected Thursday late morning through the 
afternoon. Gusts over 20KT are possible, especially after 20Z. Winds 
will diminish after sunset with gusts ending but elevated south 
winds around 10KT are expected through Thursday night. Scattered 
showers are possible Thursday afternoon, with the highest chance for 
rain at the terminals from 20Z-00Z. Isolated thunderstorms are not 
out of the question. If showers were to impact the terminals, they 
could produce brief moderate to heavy rain and CIGs to 5000ft. 
Anything that is able to develop will diminish after sunset. Expect 
VFR conditions otherwise with CIGs down to 8000ft at times. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Showers with isolated 
thunderstorms will persist through the night, with the highest 
chances in Inyo County into the Southern Great Basin. These showers 
and storms will shift into southern Nevada Thursday, with additional 
showers developing further south in California in the afternoon. Any 
showers could bring moderate to heavy rain, CIGs to 5000ft, and any 
thunderstorms would possibly produce lightning and sudden gusty 
winds. Precipitation will diminish and move east into Utah after 
sunset Thursday. After lighter winds tonight following typical wind 
trends, breezy south to southwest winds will set up on Thursday. 
Widespread gusts 15-25KT are expected in the afternoon. Winds will 
diminish around 03Z. but continued winds around 10-15KT are expected 
through at least the first part of the night. VFR conditions with 
BKN CIGs 6000-8000ft at times are expected, CIGs will improve as 
rain ends.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moore/Woods 
AVIATION...Nickerson

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